Yesterday, I wrote a piece for the Guardian in which I predicted “there’s likely to be only one surprising thing about Facebook’s IPO. And that’s just how dull a $100bn flotation can be.”
And sure enough, with the company having just filed and the rest of the tech blogosphere juddering with collective multiple-statgasms, I still can’t find myself getting excited about the contents of Fabebook’s S-1.
Mark Zuckerberg owns 28% of the company! He takes a $1 salary. Yep, figures.
The bulk of the company’s $3.71bn in revenue comes from advertising. Uh-huh.
The company makes $3.71bn in revenue! Sure.
But seriously though — 845m monthly active users and 2.7bn “likes and comments” every day! That’s amazing, right? No. Not really.
The thing is, if you’ve been paying the slightest amount of attention over the past few years, none of these numbers should surprise you in the slightest. Everyone you know, and their dog, and the dogs their dog went to school with, is on Facebook. People waste fucking hours of their day clicking like buttons and making comments. Mark Zuckerberg owns a big chunk of the company, and so doesn’t need a meaningful salary.
Sure. Yep. Ok. Fine.
Facebook is an amazing company — arguably the most amazing company of our generation — and what Zuckerberg and his team has built is phenomenal… but it has been that way for a while. All today’s filing does is confirms what we already know. And all the next few months will bring are more “sure, yep, ok and fine” moments.
READ ALL ABOUT THEM RIGHT HERE ON THE INTERNET!





Another reason to not get excited - they're only floating 5% of the company. I find it odd that this fact isn't well discussed or how it poses a greater risk to the individual investor especially in the first year (or however long the hold is on insider selling).
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikeWhen people move on from AOL, I mean MySpace, I mean Facebook, to the next new thing, the investors will be left holding the bag. I believe Facebook has already peaked, as their growth has slowed. Younger people are moving to other things, and mom and dad and grandma and grandpa will stop using Facebook if their kids are not helping them figure it out.
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
Like[...] Facebook IPO filing is frankly kid of boring. (Pando Daily also Bits, [...]
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
Like[...] had the best possible reaction to its S1 today: It just put details around a picture we pretty much knew was already there. Share this:PrintEmail Sarah Lacy Sarah Lacy is the founder and [...]
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikeOMG Paul Carr, you came here to write for Sarah's blog. Great! I wonder what happened to you. And I couldn't agree more with what you're saying. Ho-hum. What has this company done lately except more of what it's doing? And I have to say, $3.71bn in revenue is all they have from 845 million users? They're not doing it right. They should have given us some of that stock, at least in the form of game tokens. That would have perked things up.
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikePaul: I laud you when you write a good one, and diss you when you don't. But, this one is a 5 star "disser"! I have owned and do own many different stock in my portfolio, and a few years back PAID OFF my home mortgage by purchasing batches of XM Satellite Radio stock when it was cheap and hot. IMHO, Facebook is likely to be another one of those kinds of stocks, one that will grow in value because investors perceive it to have great value. In fact, I believe that this IPO will be more like Google's (which I lamented in a prior comment as being an unfair IPO), or Mastercard's, where I made a healthy 7-fold profit by buying it on the day it was available to the general public. As for revenue generation, I regularly see lots of different ads on Facebook on my Facebook page. They are not free. No doubt you see them, too? It's not just Farmville either, man. In fact, here's a perfect example: Zaggora, a cool new company in the UK that makes cellulite reducing hot pants out of the same material used in wet suits, advertises on Facebook. So do hundreds of other companies. So, there is no question about how Facebook can be monetized, and having listened to CNBC ALL DAY LONG today about the Facebook IPO - this was not a major concern to them. So, unless you have Warren Buffett or George Soros whispering into your ear, i think I'll go ahead and buy some FB shares when they become available. I think the price will climb from day one, and keep climbing, too, and that's what I want in a value stock. When I see any weakness in the price I will sell it off. Paul - I'll post back here when I've made my first 20% on the investment, so you can eat your words on this one. i hope one of those words is "pronominal", by the way, which sounds like another of your "Word of the Day Calendar" words. How about "PHENOMENAL" instead. Much better word, dude.
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikeYeah, "pronominal" was a typo -- fixed before you posted your long comment. As for the rest, you clearly misunderstood everything I wrote. At no point was I suggesting FB wasn't a great company. In fact I wrote that it was "arguably the most amazing company of our generation". Maybe try getting through to the end of the post before churning out such a long and meaningless rebuttal?
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikeMeaningless? That's a better word to describe your diatribe than mine. And, YES, I did read the whole thing, as the word "pronominal" was at the bottom of the article. At least, I add value by providing real life examples of what I think will happen with the Facebook, based on my own personal experience. I note you neither properly disclose if you own any stock at all, nor do you seem to have any real life investing experience. Cynical sarcasm and negativity are no substitute for good writing skills.
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikeYeah, you don't understand the point you're arguing with. Again, I didn't write a word about whether FB would be a smart investment. I said there was nothing revealing or interesting in the S1. You disagree? Also -- "the Facebook"?
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikePaul, you have all Commenters at a disadvantage, that surely you are aware of. WE HAVE NO WAY TO CORRECT OUR TYPOS. This is not a Forum. If we mistype something, if we type "pronominal" when we meant "phenomenal" and press Submit, there is no way to go back and correct that. Apparently, you DO have a way to fix your typos. So, don't be unfair. And go get laid or something... you take yourself entirely too seriously. Get out of the Valley once in a while and check out the rest of the "real world". LOL.
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikeI don't live in the Valley. You really should stop now.
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
Like2.7b / 845m = 3.2 likes/comments on average per user per day. That...seems low.
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikeThat's pretty darn strong engagement, I'd say.
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikeMax is trying his best to skew that average upwards.
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
Likeshhhhhhh
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikeInteresting figure to know would be, how much of that likes/comments results in actual revenue. Going by the current figure, it would require a lot of user engagement (likes/comments) for the revenue to increase.
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikeThis IS interesting: page 18: "We currently generate significant revenue as a result of our relationship with Zynga, and, if we are unable to successfully maintain this relationship, our financial results could be harmed. In 2011, Zynga accounted for approximately 12% of our revenue, which amount was comprised of revenue derived from payments processing fees related to Zynga’s sales of virtual goods and from direct advertising purchased by Zynga. Additionally, Zynga’s apps generate a significant number of pages on which we display ads from other advertisers. If the use of Zynga games on our Platform declines, if Zynga launches games on or migrates games to competing platforms, or if we fail to maintain good relations with Zynga, we may lose Zynga as a significant Platform developer and our financial results may be adversely affected."
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikeNope, we knew that too ;)
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikeMore importantly, Zenga generates in the neighborhood of 90% of its revenue from Facebook, so there's no chance that it is going elsewhere any time soon.
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
LikePaul, you are so absolutely correct. This is more of a non-event than an event - and I pity the poor suckers who think they're going to make big bucks once the IPO occurs. That's already sewn up in the secondary market with the existing investors. Oh, and the investment bankers' fees. Ah well. As you say, "Sure. Yep. OK. Fine." I'll add: Have a nice day.
- spam
- offensive
- disagree
- off topic
Like