Feb 7, 2014 · 1 minute

Last October, median rents in San Francisco for all units reached a record $3,096 a month, a 11.9% hike over the previous year. Meanwhile, economic tensions continue to increase: On one side, there are those who, while not crazy about high rent, can afford to pay it. Many of these individuals are relative newcomers working in the region's ever-burgeoning tech scene. They are not to blame for high rents, and some of them are just as concerned about homelessness and income inequality as anyone else in the city. But in many people's minds they are nonetheless emblematic of the urban woes some face. On the other side are activists who, for the most part, are merely concerned citizens worried about income inequality. A small minority, however, have turned violent.

Will rent prices eventually level off or even start to decline? Or will we continue to see significant hikes for the foreseeable future, which could only exacerbate existing tensions?

The data analysts at the forecasting firm Levers have tried to answer this question using historical rent data from Zillow and a pretty intense mathematical method.

[Disclosure: Levers' CEO Jonathan Kressaty also does development work for Pando]

Their verdict? Over the next few months, the rent will still be too damn high, but at least it's not expected to go much higher. By the end of 2014, Levers predicts the median rent will be $3,070. What's more, they forecast that rent will hit a median low of $2,800 this Summer. So if you're thinking of moving to San Francisco, June may be the time to do it.


"Although there has been a historical increase in rent prices in San Francisco, this forecast suggests that further increases are starting to slow, and we should see lower prices in the summer of 2014," writes Kressaty. "The market appears closer to a price point where supply and demand are more balanced."

Kressaty also emphasizes this predictive model is purely mathematical and that, "there are infinite social and economic factors when attempting to predict something like rent price."

In other words, rent prices will are likely to hold steady over the next 11 months barring the passage of some incredibly aggressive pro-eviction legislation or an Ayn Randian retreat of all the tech CEOs to a ship in the middle of the ocean with Peter Thiel.

[Image: Alaskan Dude on Flickr]